Will Gas Prices Go Down? A Data-Driven Outlook
A data-driven gas price outlook — not a hard prediction. What our seasonal trends and the latest EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (June 2026) suggest for the rest of 2026 and into 2027.
The seasonal pattern, and where we are now
Across 26 full years of our EIA weekly data since 2000, the national average has climbed from a January low toward a spring/summer peak in 25 of those years, peaking around June before easing in the fall — once the costlier summer-grade fuel requirement lifts in mid-September. So the calendar leans toward firmer prices into summer and softer prices afterward. Why prices rise every summer →
Right now, the U.S. average for regular is $4.05 (week of June 15, 2026) — +29% versus a year ago, the highest since 2022. See the live figure and the full trend on the national tracker.
What the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook projects
In its June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (released June 9, 2026), the EIA forecasts, in its words, “an average wholesale gasoline price of $2.98 per gallon (gal) in 2026 … and an average price of $2.61/gal in 2027.” [1] That is the wholesale price — the pump price adds federal and state taxes plus distribution and marketing, so it runs higher. The signal that matters is the direction: the EIA expects wholesale gasoline to ease from 2026 into 2027.
The forecast is driven by crude oil. The EIA reports the “Brent crude oil spot price rose sharply in March and April, rising from an average of $71 per barrel (b) in February to reach an average of $117/b for April,” before it “fell to an average of $107/b for May” — bringing the 2026 annual average to about $95/b, “the highest annual average price since 2022.” [1] “Higher global crude oil prices are pushing U.S. petroleum wholesale price forecasts higher,” the EIA says. [1] Because the cost of crude oil is the single largest factor in the retail price, the pump-price outlook effectively tracks the crude oil outlook. [3]
Why forecasts get overrun
The biggest reason to hold any gas-price forecast loosely is that a single global event can override both the seasonal pattern and last month’s projection. 2026 is the live example: a Middle East supply disruption pushed crude — and pump prices — sharply higher, well beyond what the calendar alone would suggest, and forced the EIA to raise its own forecast mid-year. When crude is calm, the seasonal tailwind dominates and prices behave predictably; when it isn’t, geopolitics wins. Why gas prices rose in 2026 →
The gas price outlook, answered
- Will gas prices go down?
- It depends mostly on crude oil. In its June 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts wholesale gasoline easing from $2.98 a gallon in 2026 to $2.61 in 2027 (a pre-tax wholesale price; the pump price runs higher), as crude oil comes down from a 2026 average of about $95 a barrel — the highest since 2022. Because crude is the largest factor in the pump price, that points toward easing prices in 2027, absent a new shock. Our own weekly data also shows a seasonal pattern — prices typically rise from a January low toward an June peak, then ease in the fall.
- What is the gas price forecast for 2026?
- The EIA's June 2026 STEO forecasts wholesale gasoline to average $2.98 per gallon in 2026 and $2.61 in 2027 — the pump price adds taxes and distribution on top. The EIA raised this forecast sharply after Brent crude jumped from about $71 a barrel in February to about $117 in April amid the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz, easing to $107 in May. These are EIA figures, published June 9, 2026, and they move each month with the crude oil outlook.
- Will gas prices drop next month?
- We don't publish a specific next-month price — short-term moves depend on crude oil and refining, which no one forecasts precisely. What the data offers is direction: our weekly series shows prices usually firmest through the summer driving season and easing once the summer-blend requirement lifts in mid-September. For the official month-by-month path, the EIA's monthly STEO is the authoritative source.
- Are these gas price predictions reliable?
- Treat them as an outlook, not a guarantee. The seasonal pattern is a reliable direction in our data but a noisy magnitude, and the EIA's STEO is an official forecast that the EIA itself revises monthly as crude oil and geopolitics change. The 2026 spike — driven by a Middle East supply disruption — is a live example of a global event overriding the normal seasonal pattern.
Where the forecast figures come from
- [1]U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook (released June 9, 2026), Petroleum Products — forecasts an average wholesale gasoline price of $2.98/gal in 2026 and $2.61/gal in 2027 (about a 50% and 40% increase from the February STEO); Brent crude oil rose from $71/b (February) to $117/b (April) and eased to $107/b (May), bringing the 2026 annual average to $95/b, the highest since 2022; higher crude cited as the driver pushing U.S. petroleum wholesale price forecasts higher
- [2]U.S. EIA, Short-Term Energy Outlook — home, monthly forecast tables and data (the STEO is reissued monthly, so figures here reflect the June 2026 edition)
- [3]U.S. EIA, Energy Explained — “Factors affecting gasoline prices”: the cost of crude oil is the largest single factor in the retail price, so gasoline forecasts hinge on the crude oil outlook
The seasonal pattern and current price are from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly retail series, held in our own database. The forward-looking price figures are the EIA’s published Short-Term Energy Outlook projection (June 9, 2026), not our own estimate.